My (knightian) prior is concentrated on Case 1, with some on Case 3. I agree with 'the real filter may be governance'...but *much* earlier in the chain.
I've been developing a theory that synthesizes the existing evo literature, and it suggests 'wise' architecture may have been needed for LUCA to avoid driving itself extinct...and we underestimate the difficulty due to massive survivorship bias. I've started talked with some ppl at UWash to see if I can get some of the empirical predictions validated. Excerpt from WIP manuscript:
The above is part of a new form of pragmatism I've been developing, with deep evo and physics grounding. I would love to chat with you about it sometime if you're got any availability coming up.
Nice piece, Jim. It's easy to imagine that the most extreme risks you mention could end civilization as we know it. Heck, that has already happened to many once great civilizations throughout history. One could even imagine threats that could kill 90% of the people on earth. But it is extremely hard to imagine events short of the sun going red giant or supernova that would cause the human race to go extinct in its entirety. We are an extremely resourceful and resilient form of life that has already mastered living in extremely hostile environments (think igloos). As for AI terminators taking us out, they wouldn't stand a chance if they turned on us humans. We've been exterminating each other as well as many non-human species with ruthless efficiency for tens of thousands of years. That's precisely what made our intelligence so razor sharp. :)
My (knightian) prior is concentrated on Case 1, with some on Case 3. I agree with 'the real filter may be governance'...but *much* earlier in the chain.
I've been developing a theory that synthesizes the existing evo literature, and it suggests 'wise' architecture may have been needed for LUCA to avoid driving itself extinct...and we underestimate the difficulty due to massive survivorship bias. I've started talked with some ppl at UWash to see if I can get some of the empirical predictions validated. Excerpt from WIP manuscript:
https://pragmaticfutures.substack.com/p/analyzing-the-anti-ruin-architectural
The above is part of a new form of pragmatism I've been developing, with deep evo and physics grounding. I would love to chat with you about it sometime if you're got any availability coming up.
Book: Rare Earth by Ward and Brownlee.
Nice piece, Jim. It's easy to imagine that the most extreme risks you mention could end civilization as we know it. Heck, that has already happened to many once great civilizations throughout history. One could even imagine threats that could kill 90% of the people on earth. But it is extremely hard to imagine events short of the sun going red giant or supernova that would cause the human race to go extinct in its entirety. We are an extremely resourceful and resilient form of life that has already mastered living in extremely hostile environments (think igloos). As for AI terminators taking us out, they wouldn't stand a chance if they turned on us humans. We've been exterminating each other as well as many non-human species with ruthless efficiency for tens of thousands of years. That's precisely what made our intelligence so razor sharp. :)